The announcement of a Trump’s 19% import tariff has sent ripples through Indonesia’s trade and manufacturing sectors. As Donald Trump pushes for a return to the White House, he’s also reviving his hardline economic policies — including steep tariffs on imported goods. For Indonesia, this spells serious consequences.
Indonesia at Risk from Trump’s Tariff Agenda
Trump’s protectionist vision includes a proposed universal 10% tariff on all imports, with certain countries — including Indonesia — potentially facing even higher levies, up to 19%. Although the policy hasn’t been enacted yet, the rhetoric alone is already creating uncertainty in global markets.
Indonesia, as one of the largest exporters of textiles, rubber, and electronics to the US, stands to lose a competitive edge. The proposed tariff would significantly raise the price of Indonesian goods in American markets, reducing demand and weakening export volumes.
Potential Economic Impact on Indonesia
Trade experts warn that a Trump’s 19% import tariff could slash Indonesia’s exports to the US by billions of dollars annually. The textile and footwear industries, which employ millions of workers, would be among the hardest hit.
According to a report by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade, a 19% tariff could reduce US-bound exports by at least 15% in the first year of implementation. This would impact GDP, reduce foreign exchange earnings, and slow job creation in export-oriented sectors.
Manufacturing and Investment Uncertainty
Besides trade, the tariff threat could destabilize investor confidence. American and European companies looking to set up supply chains in Southeast Asia may reconsider their plans. Indonesia’s role as a manufacturing base for global companies could be weakened, especially if the cost of exporting to the US rises sharply.
Moreover, multinational companies operating in Indonesia may shift their production elsewhere to avoid the added costs, likely benefiting countries that enjoy more favorable trade terms with the US.
Indonesia’s Strategic Response
The Indonesian government is not standing still. Officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Trade have begun informal diplomatic communications with US trade representatives to clarify the tariff plans and advocate for Indonesia’s exemption or reconsideration.
In parallel, Indonesia is accelerating its strategy to diversify export destinations. Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are among the emerging markets targeted to absorb potential excess from reduced US demand.
Global Trade Reactions and Ripple Effects
Trump’s tariff rhetoric has also rattled other emerging markets. Economists believe that broad tariffs of this kind could ignite another global trade war, destabilizing supply chains that are still recovering from pandemic-era disruptions.
For Indonesia, this means potential spillover effects not only in trade but also in currency volatility, inflation, and investor sentiment. The rupiah may come under pressure if exports drop significantly, requiring the central bank to intervene more actively.
Conclusion: Preparing for the Worst, Hoping for the Best
While the Trump 19% import tariff remains a policy proposal rather than a law, its implications are too big to ignore. Indonesia must brace for possible disruptions by strengthening regional trade ties, investing in high-value industries, and lobbying diplomatically to safeguard its access to global markets.
As the US presidential election draws near, businesses, policymakers, and economists will be watching closely. Whether or not the tariff becomes reality, the episode has already underscored the fragility of global trade — and the urgency for nations like Indonesia to future-proof their economies.
